Resources · Economics Lab
Model the unit economics before you ship.
An open worksheet for the four numbers that decide whether an incentive earns its keep: contribution margin, expected payout, hedge %, and incremental gross profit against a control.
Contribution margin
Start with the margin on the basket you're actually incenting — not the storefront average.
Expected payout
Payout probability × payout size × exposed customers — capped at your policy ceiling.
Hedge %
The share of expected payout liability reserved from the incentive budget.
Incremental gross profit
The read the CFO cares about — measured against a matched control, not against last year.
Run the numbers on your pilot.
Bring a target behavior; we'll help size the mechanism and the cap.